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I have to admit I’m psyched.  The greatest American game is a month away.  And this could be a magic year for the Mets.  I’m starting to feel it.

 Imagine…Imagine a team with broke owners and no bigtime pitchers going on to win 90 games to eke out a playoff spot.  Imagine a team that’s close at the All-Star break being lifted by the return of its star pitcher from injury. 

Imagine a team whose second-year guys play like seasoned veterans.  Imagine a team whose bargain- basement pitching acquisitions go on to win 30 games.  Imagine a team whose hard-luck pitchers of the year before suddenly start to win the games they lost the previous year.

 Imagine a healthy Jose Reyes in his contract year stealing 60 bases and scoring 130 runs.  Imagine a Carlos Beltran limping along to get big hit after big hit in key spots down the stretch.  Imagine a Jason Bay totally turning around his miserable performance of his first year in New York.

Yeah, I know.  That’s a lot of imagining.  But why not us?  Maybe the bad luck has gone the way of Omar and Jerry.  Maybe the Mets will be as lucky as their owners are not.  Maybe this season will be the lucky one, the rabbit’s foot year. 

Ya gotta believe.  Tug McGraw had it right. 

I was in the stands for Games 2 and 5 of the 1969 World Series.  The Mets beat the Orioles in five games.  But that team wasn’t expected to win.  Their lineup was pretty suspect.  Their pitchers were young, even if they had names like Seaver and Koosman and Gentry et al.

That ’86 team was expected to win but even they had to get lucky to even make it to the Series, getting by a Houston team in startling fashion.  They won it all only after an easy ground ball got by a first baseman who had manned his position very adequately until that very moment.  His name is legend, of course, and Bill Buckner will always be remembered in baseball lore because of it.

Yeah, I know….what about the Phillies?  Well, what about them?  Pitching, pitching and more pitching is what they have.  But I tell you to ask any fantasy player about the reliability of pitching, especially those coming off a big year, a year in which those arms gobbled up a lot of innings.

Let’s take a closer look.  Halladay will be 34 in May.  In his last five years, he’s thrown way over 200 innings each year, and last year he threw an incredible 250 innings.  It’s a similar story for Cliff Lee whose innings pitched for the last three years have been at around 220.  He’ll be 33 in August.  Roy Oswalt will be 34 in August.  He’s been a horse too over the years but ask any horseman about the dependability of horses.

Cole Hamels is their number 4 pitcher and he’s younger than the big three at 27 but also logged over 200 innings last year.  But, for anyone with any memory of 2009, fragility thy name is Hamels.  Surely he could be good this year, but then again so could Mike Pelfrey.

Their number 5 Blanton isn’t in the same class as the others but is still a pretty fair arm, but his ERA last year was 4.82.  Kyle Kendrick is listed in the Phils depth chart as a number 6 starter who sported a 4.73 ERA in 2010, not too shabby but not too far removed from average either.

An injury to any one of the big three (and to put Oswalt in the same class as Lee and Halladay is sort of specious to begin with) puts the Phillies well within striking distance.  And, even discounting the possibility of injury, what about a good guy just having a bad year?  It happens all the time.  Ask Jason Bay. 

And what about just having bad luck on the mound?  Ask Johan Santana about that.  Santana had more no-decisions and losses last year than just about any hurler in the league, never mind one who sported an ERA under 3.00.

An injury, some bad luck, a loss of form (ask A.J. Burnett about that), or some bad luck brings the Phils right back to the pack.  And it’s a pretty good pack of pitchers in New York.  Pelfrey’s ERA was 3.66 and he went 15-9 despite one truly bad month. Niese was at 4.20, Dickey was at 2.84 and had almost as bad luck as Santana when it came down to runs scored for him.

The probable number 4 pitcher will be Chris Young, still a relative youngster in terms of innings pitched but a solid veteran nevertheless with a career ERA of 3.66.  Dillon Gee is an unknown quantity at Number 5 but did manage to sport a 2.18 ERA in limited action last year.  Pat Misch is a possible number 6 and managed a 3.82 ERA in limited action as a starter and reliever.

The numbers aren’t all that bad.  If the pitching holds up, as it did all last year, the Mets could be formidable this year.  They’ll almost undoubtedly score a lot more runs.  With Beltran returning and Reyes playing more games, with Wright just being himself and Bay returning to form, the Mets have at least four very dangerous guys in the lineup.

And that’s not even counting centerfielder Pagan, Ike Davis and Josh Thole, the first baseman and catcher respectively, who figure to improve off some pretty fair results last year.

Jose Reyes could have a monster year.  He lights up at the mere mention of his upcoming free agency.  Wright could too after bouncing back last year from his disastrous 2009.  With Beltran back, opponents will have to pitch to David. 

The team with no money and no pitching but with a solid lineup, good team speed and a sound defense could just go a long way.  Ask Tug McGraw.