Arod, Papi and Reggie - May, October and October? Photo by Kathy Willens - AP	Hanley - the best Ramirez? Photo by Charles Krupa  - AP

Nowhere is change more evident than in baseball this year.  The Dodgers are moving out of Dodgertown.  The Red Sox are on their way to Japan.  The Dodgers went to China.  Pitchers can't throw inside anymore.  You can't run over the catcher in March.  And Hanley Ramirez is the likely Number 2 pick overall in your fantasy draft.

Who, you ask?  You mean Manny Ramirez, right?  Or even Aramis Ramirez?  Well, no.  I mean Hanley, still another Ramirez from the Dominican Republic, actually Samana, but what's a few miles?.  Hanley plays for the Florida Marlins, and puts up beautiful numbers, batting .292 his first full year and .332 his second year.  His home run totals went from 17 to 29, though, in 2007.  He also stole 51 bases in each of those years.  It makes me sad the Red Sox got rid of him after his two-game audition in 2005.  And, um, who's playing shortstop for them now? 

While I can understand fantasy players salivating over Hanley, it is rather odd, isn't it?  First pick - Arod, second pick-Hanley friggin' Ramirez.  Just as Arod was passed over as the Number 1 in my Fantasy League last year by Ryan Howard, much to that owner's chagrin (although Mr. Howard had one hell of a second half), let me suggest that Hanley selectors may be crying in their beer this October.

Two years does not make a legacy.  It could perhaps be the beginning of one, I suppose, and it certainly is a nice streak, but as much as baseball is changing, some things remain the same.  Sluggers change the game, whether it's baseball or fantasy baseball. 

Shown above left is Alex Rodriguez, aka AROD, the consensus number one on everyone's list.  Alex was awesome last year. After having dropped some weight and apparently having redistributed much of the rest, Alex went on to hit 54 homers, score 143 runs and knock in 156.  Not too shabby.  Oh, and he stole 24 bases.  From a fantasy point of view, he is Michelangelo, or at the very least, Leonardo daVinci.

Arod even hit a post-season home run...and posted his lone RBI with it.  He did manage to cross home plate at the same time, thus assuring him of two runs scored for the divisional playoff loss to the Cleveland Indians, 3 games to 1. Thus, while Arod may be the straw that stirs the fantasy drink, he has yet to prove that he can shake anything up in October.  That he is pictured above with Big Papi, a terrific clutch performer and Reggie, Mr. October himself, is not without its irony.

But he still prevails in the regular season and has done so for many years, but not too many.  Other players of the same ilk have apparently too many seasons under their belts, such as Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and even Big Papi himself.

Manny Ramirez is practically off the charts in fantasy leagues, averaging pick 36 in Yahoo leagues, the end of the third round. Ortiz is this year selected at about pick 17 and Guerrero at about the 21^st pick.  Too many seasons for all three of these all-time greats, I suppose, along with a bit of a decline for all three last year, have contributed to the decline in expectations.

Another perennial favorite, Miguel Cabrera, currently listed at an average of the ninth pick in fantasy drafts, has been shipped off to Detroit, which perhaps would have increased his stock if he had not also lost 30 pounds at the same time.  While Miguel may play the field better and run faster (not without its own merits in Detroit), the jury is out on whether he'll hit better at the lighter weight.

<>So who are the usurpers of the top spots?  Besides Hanley, there is Jose Reyes of the Mets listed at three, Albert Pujols of the Cards at four, David Wright of the Mets is five and the Phils Chase Utley is six.  Matt Holliday of the Rockies, still another Met, Johan Santana and the Phils Jimmy Rollins round out the top ten.  <>

For those of you who are saying “so what”?, I say to you that fantasy drafts are all about expectations.  If three Mets are in the top ten, that means one whole hell of a lot of people think the Mets should win this year.  And with two Phillies in there as well, folks will be expecting a battle royale in October.

I certainly hope it turns out that way.  I’m expecting less of Jose Reyes for sure, and there is reason to believe that Santana may experience a fall from grace, given that other American League pitchers have had trouble in their first year on the senior circuit.  David Wright has shown remarkable consistency though, and seems to improve his game every year.  He is one of the few that I think deserve their lofty status.

Much the same could be said about Chase Utley.  The Rockies’ Matt Holliday certainly deserves his name in the top ten too, as does Jimmy Rollins, who defeated Holliday for the NL MVP in 2007.  Both players have shown continuous excellence for years, Holliday for four and Rollins for eight, just on the verge of too many years.

Although I would like to think that all these fantasy players are wrong, there is more likely at least some truth in the numbers.  I’m a believer in consensus-thinking, despite having spent many years in meetings that should have proven otherwise.

There is a changing of the guard going on, and although that could be said for any year, it seems more applicable to this one.  Numbers don’t lie, at least in the aggregate, and if the expectations for these stars, and others I haven’t mentioned, are fading, then at least some of their performances will truly fade.

What that will mean for Boston and the Angels and others remains to be seen.  But I’m betting there will be some reflection in the standings.

 

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